📈 BITCOIN → Why might the price drop to 34K before halving?
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BTCUSD has been rising for 124 days without any meaningful correction since September. Within a strongly bullish distribution, the price tested the strongest liquidity zone of 48K and made a false breakout, which is a strong sign for the start of a correction.
Technically, BTC is in a stalemate situation, between two channels, more precisely in the range between 43K and 40K. The consolidation may last an indefinite amount of time, as fundamentally bitcoin is quite strong, and all the selling that is taking place is related to ETFs. The next halving is expected on April 7, 2024. Statistically, the market goes into a significant correction phase before this phenomenon and there is a logic in this - to form more favorable positions before the strong rally that everyone is waiting for.
• At the moment, technically, the price is restrained by the resistance 43118 and the price has chances to rise, but for that the market will have to overcome this resistance and hold the level.
• From below we have the support at 40181, which is a risk and panic zone. When the price approaches this area, many buyers and sellers have adrenaline levels, as some are eager to open trades and others are afraid of reaching the stop-loss.
Within the current situation, we have two scenarios:
• 1) Shortsqueeze in the format of a false breakout relative to 0.382 fibo, rise, breakout of 43118, consolidation above the level and subsequent rise to 50K, but at the moment, for the reasons I stated above, this scenario doesn't have much of a chance
• 2) Breakout of 0.382 fibo, the market gets rid of unnecessary passengers (knock out stoplosses), then - the key fibo area in the medium term - 0.618 fibo. Test of the area may occur in February - March and become a strong support before further growth after halving.
Support levels: 40181
Resistance levels: 43118
Fundamentally the flagman is doing quite well, but technically there are reasons why the market should lower the price before the growth