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R.Linda Trading - forecast

GOLD / XAUUSD - The market is waiting for NFP. What could happen?

2025-08-01 09:59 GOLD Forecast

👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD

📈 The market is waiting for NFP. What could happen?

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GOLD is bouncing off resistance at 3310, confirming the upper limit of the new trading range. The dollar continues to rally, but the market as a whole is stagnating ahead of upcoming news—NFP is coming up!

Gold is consolidating at monthly lows around $3268, awaiting key US labor market data (NFP). Trump's new tariffs (10% globally, 35% for Canada, 39% for Switzerland) have boosted demand for the dollar, putting pressure on gold. Markets are waiting for NFP: forecast +110K jobs, unemployment 4.2%. Weak data (<100K) → gold may rise to $3400. Strong (>150K) → the dollar will strengthen, gold will continue to fall. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is <50%.

Based on yesterday's data, I would cautiously suggest that NFP will be in the range of 125K–145K, slightly above the consensus (110K). This will play into Trump's hands (I think you understand what I mean...).

Resistance levels: 3300, 3310, 3320

Support levels: 3287, 3268, 3255

The news has a negative nuance — unpredictability. Be careful.

Technically, based on the data we have at the moment, I would assume that the market may test resistance at 3300-3310 before a possible pullback to the specified support. BUT! Unpredictable data could turn the game around, and in that case, if the dollar falls, gold could start to rise.

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